A razor-sharp FPL model
with nothing hidden
Sideline Quant is a Fantasy Premier League planner built on a deep expected points model with all its inner workings accessible. Use it to build your team, forecast transfers and win your mini-leagues.
No account needed. Public FPL data only — I never ask for your login.
Aston Villa 1.5 goals expected · 23% chance of clean sheet
29% chance this player scores in the match
It rates the haulers above the rest, six times in ten
Hauls decide gameweeks and mini-leagues. I’m proud of what the model forecasts, so much so I publish all its results openly. Nothing here is edited after the fact, and the weeks it got wrong are published with the rest.
- 65%
- Spotting a 6+ haul
- 64%
- Spotting a 10+ haul
how often it rated a player who went on to score 6+ above one who didn't across 625 player-weeks and 153 hauls.
the same read on the returns that decide a captaincy, across 41 of them.
One payment. Pro through 2026-27.
78p a gameweek on the pass. Same Pro limits either way — six-gameweek planner, chips, drafts, rivals. Monthly cancels whenever you like; the pass has nothing to cancel. 14-day refund on both.
Upcoming gameweek
Max xP is the strongest fifteen the model can name for the coming gameweek, three per club as always. The Differential XV chases points the crowd hasn't spotted yet, and Elite Ownership shows what the top 10k are actually fielding, captaincy included.
A forward projection, spending nothing and owing nothing: the strongest fifteen by expected points, three per club, with no £100.0m budget to respect. Not the same object as the judged legal squad, which was bought inside the budget before a past deadline and has since been marked on what actually happened — that one is on each settled week’s own page.
A weekly toolkit — with the workings shown.
Sideline Quant turns match odds, player shares, and minutes risk into expected points for every player, every gameweek — refreshed for every deadline, with nothing behind the curtain.
- 01Read this week's board
Expected points, minutes risk, and haul chances for the gameweeks ahead.
Browse predictions → - 02See the real fixture map
Every match priced from odds-based expected goals — find the genuinely soft runs.
Browse fixtures → - 03Open any number
Every xP figure unpacks into four layers — odds, shares, minutes, sims.
How it works →
What makes the numbers different
- Minutes are a distribution — start, sub, cameo, unused — not expected-minutes ÷ 90.
- Fixture difficulty comes from de-margined bookmaker odds while the market is posted, then my own team ratings — both finer than FPL's 1–5 FDR.
- Every player carries haul probabilities from the same simulations, not just an average.
- Last season's run is published in full — every gameweek, transfer, and chip.
Built to out-plan your mini-league.
One good deadline doesn't win a league; thirty-eight might. The engine behind the board solves every one of them.
The optimiser runs a mixed-integer solve over the whole player pool and up to six gameweeks in one pass — transfers, captain, bench order, all four chips, and whether a −4 pays for itself. Every plan reports the probability it beats simply holding.
Open the optimiser →Import your mini-league and the same simulations play out your run-in: expected finish, chance of first, who is realistically catchable, and which differentials swing the most points against the managers above you.
Score your rivals →The board, the optimiser and the rivals view all read the same simulations, so the numbers never disagree with each other — and when they surprise you, you can open them and see why.
See how it fits together →The whole season, free. Pay for the fixture-by-fixture detail.
Every player’s projected points to the end of the season are open to anyone. You pay when you want the model fixture by fixture — the transfer plan, chip timing, drafts and rivals scoring.
A wider board and more solves than browsing signed out.
- Every player, ranked by xP
- 2 gameweeks of predictions and planning
- Haul probabilities — P(≥6) and P(≥10) for the next gameweek
- Clean-sheet, goal and bonus chances on every player
- 10 solves a day · 1 synced draft
- Full performance archive
Try a month. Same Pro limits as the season pass.
- Every column: elite top-10k EO, price changes, floor and ceiling
- 6-gameweek prediction horizon
- 6-gameweek planner, chips and hits
- 4 synced drafts · 60 solves a day
- Rivals scoring and layer inspector
One payment, nothing to cancel. Saves 21% on monthly.
- Every column: elite top-10k EO, price changes, floor and ceiling
- 6-gameweek prediction horizon
- 6-gameweek planner, chips and hits
- 4 synced drafts · 60 solves a day
- Rivals scoring and layer inspector
Last season’s performance
This is a new model created for the 2026-27 season. However, in testing it was run through the 2025-26 season gameweek by gameweek, letting it see only what was known before each deadline. It then picked a team, made transfers and played chips as it would for this season. This is what it would have scored. It is a simulation however, not a live record, and past performance does not guarantee future performance. The replay used last season's bonus-point rules; this season's changes are in the live model.
+991 vs the best set-and-forget baseline, over 38 gameweeks with hits netted off.
Every backtested gameweek, transfer, and chip →- This model242763.9/GW
- Set-and-forget template143637.8/GW
- Set-and-forget by price108428.5/GW
Baselines are set-and-forget reference teams that never transfer — not a typical active manager.
What the model is reading into this season
I assumed the answer was 'as long as you can afford to wait'. It isn't, or at least not in ten seasons of data.
Single-week expected points for opening weekend, off the 10 August model run. Mbeumo tops the board, Haaland is fourth at 74% ownership, and two of the biggest names carry minutes doubt.
Every club’s first six fixtures, ranked by the model’s expected-goal difference rather than FPL’s 1–5 difficulty ratings.
Transfers, captain, and chips from one model — so you stop guessing.
Open any expected-points number and see how it was built.
Check the season track record — receipts, not vibes.