Sideline Quant
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The numbers behind your GW1 squad, in the open.

Expected points, built across four layers you can inspect — team scoring, minutes, involvement, 10,000 simulated gameweeks. Then optimised into your best opening squad.

Lock in the players you’ve already made your mind up about, ban the ones you haven’t, and the optimiser finds the best 15 around them.

FPL xP fully explained
HaalandFWD · Man City
GW1
vs Bournemouth
A
Team scoring & clean sheets

Man City 2.5 goals expected · 26% chance of clean sheet

B
Who gets the chances

45% chance this player scores in the match

C
Will they play?
60+ 87%sub <60 1%cameo 3%unused 9%
D
Expected points, risk and haul probabilities
5.2xPσ 4.6P≥6 44%P≥10 14%
Open the full breakdown
Teams of the week

Upcoming gameweek

Max xP is the model's highest-scoring 15 for the next gameweek. Elite Ownership mirrors the top-10k template by effective ownership (ownership + captain weight).

as-of unavailable · unknown
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2025-26 backtest
2427net points

+991 vs the best set-and-forget baseline, over 38 gameweeks with hits netted off.

Every gameweek, transfer, and chip →
  1. This model242763.9/GW
  2. Set-and-forget template143637.8/GW
  3. Set-and-forget by price108428.5/GW

Baselines are set-and-forget reference teams that never transfer — not a typical active manager.

This is a new model developed for the coming 2026-27 season. When we ran it against last season's data it made the following predictions and decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Note: this model was run using last season's BP scoring mechanism. Tweaks to the Bonus Points System are included in the model for this season.

Pricing

See this week free. Pay to plan the next six.

Expected points, fixtures and the published track record stay open. You pay when you want the model to plan further than the next deadline.

Free
£0no card
  • Top 100 players by xP
  • 2-gameweek prediction horizon
  • 1-gameweek optimiser
  • 10 solves a day
  • Full performance archive
See this week’s xP
Pro
Best value
£25for the season — 66p a gameweek

Or £3.99/mo monthly. The pass saves 37%.

  • Every player, every column
  • 6-gameweek prediction horizon
  • 6-gameweek planner, chips and hits
  • 4 synced drafts · 60 solves a day
  • Rivals scoring and layer inspector
Scout

What the model is reading into this season

All posts →
Clear weekly plan

Transfers, captain, and chips from one model — so you stop guessing.

Numbers you can follow

Open any expected-points number and see how it was built.

Results we publish

Check the season track record — receipts, not vibes.